How minerals deal could become a Trojan horse for Ukraine

According to legends, modern Manhattan was bought by the Dutch from an Indian tribe for a few dozen guilders. The Indians had no such thing as a right to land, and apparently, they were just making fun of the strange whites who paid money for nothing. Not exclusively, the Indians believed that the visitors wouldn't last long on their swampy island. Interestingly, they were partly right. Because the Dutch did leave the island. However, the land didn't return to the Indians — it became the property of the new white masters.

This brief excursion into history perfectly demonstrates what happens when you make dubious deals. Unfortunately, it's difficult to understand how dubious a so-called "minerals" deal can be because of the almost complete lack of information. As a rule, when scammers want to deceive you, they demand to do everything quickly. This is what Trump is doing, and it is alarming.

But we can make certain assumptions. In particular, we can assume that Americans, or rather "Trumpists," won't want to participate in something that requires a lot of investment to achieve any result. That's why the word "infrastructure" has been used along with the word "minerals" lately.

The exact ports are mentioned, and some people have already mentioned the Ukrainian nuclear power industry. And it is quite logical to get a mix of explored and already working mineral deposits, such as manganese ore, ilmenite for titanium production, uranium ore, and to top it off with an energy monopoly or convenient logistics.

It seems to be an almost perfect picture for a loan shark who, seeing trouble in his neighbor's house, squeezes the last out of him. But reality can be even darker for us.

In order to understand what other dangers Ukraine may face in the implementation of this deal, we can turn to the Ukrainian experience. In 2001, a very high-profile privatization sale took place within the walls of the State Property Fund of Ukraine. Namely, a Western investor entered the Ukrainian energy sector - a little-known Slovak company won a privatization tender for the sale of several Ukrainian regional power companies.

And after the ink had dried on the sale agreement, it became known that the real owners of the energy assets were Russians, in fact, the mafia-FSB Luzhniki Group, who acquired shares in Ukrainian companies through a shell company.

This raises one logical question: who guarantees that the assets now transferred to the Americans will remain in their hands?

Or will the extracted titanium not go to Russia for missile production?

It is no secret that Ukrainian assets have added value for the Russians. We are talking about acquiring not just a business but also an influence in a country that they are trying to conquer and destroy. And this has happened more than once — it was the Russians who were always ready to pay more to get this influence.

Who can now guarantee that Trump's America will not simply act as a kind of intermediary in the transfer of Ukrainian assets into Russian hands? It would be more profitable and easier for Trump than to continue to deal with Ukrainian assets himself. At the same time, the Russians have gained vast experience over decades of shadow privatization in how to conduct such transactions without being seen. As in the case of the Slovaks, it is possible to formalize everything through an American shell company. Trump is constantly talking about how he had a friendly conversation with Putin and how good it is to cooperate with Russia.

Or simply put his own people on the supervisory board who will make the necessary decisions. Or he can establish "warm" relations with American managers, among whom the Russian trace will become more and more apparent over time. There are many ways, especially since the "dividends" received can exceed the entire investment.

What would it cost to take control of the Black Sea port, through which all cargo flows will go, or a nuclear power plant, which is the main electricity producerity?

With dependent personnel and technical and information facilities. Or simply supply Ukrainian ilmenite to Russian factories, which will be used to make titanium alloy for Russian bombers. There is no need to break through the road with tanks to these facilities. Just pay the intermediaries from overseas decent money.

Hasn't this already happened? Hasn't the Russians taken control of entire sectors of the Ukrainian economy? The only difference will be that, nominally, it will be the Americans. And perhaps, at some point, there will be no point in pretending anymore.

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